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Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) is brand famous for inspiring a veritable ocean of prognosticators churning out rumor after rumor on the plans and machinations of the notoriously tight-lipped company. A Wall Street analyst has now jumped into the fray, this time from the perspective of an investor.
Rumors on the Web are often driven by product enthusiasts, or sometimes untraceable memos, like the one that recently ended up at Engadget and led to a massive, though short-lived, Apple stock sell-off. Either way, Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster, a senior research analyst, is in the business of prediction, and for tech enthusiasts, that involves taking an educated guess at what companies like Apple are going to do -- and when.
Conjuring Winds
First up, Munster doesn't believe that Apple will use its Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) to launch the iPhone. The conference is scheduled for June 11-15 in San Francisco.
"They (Apple) talk about this as being one of the biggest product launches in the company's history, and they've told us that, for big product launches, they like to -- and this is their phrase -- 'make their own weather,'" Munster told MacNewsWorld.
"I think that the Worldwide Developers Conference is a venue for them to do some things, but this [with the iPhone] is clearly a different deal. I think they want to do something that's independent, and I don't think the iPhone is going to be ready for the Developers Conference. I think it's going to go right down to the wire," he explained.
Besides, "The company is brilliant at creating a buzz. Apple can get the Developer Conference buzz, and then they can turn around and create a whole new buzz, and people will come. If they send out invitations to an event for the iPhone launch, they'll fill a room," he added.
New MacBook Pro Laptops?
Many industry watchers, including Munster himself, expect to see Apple release updates to its MacBook Pro laptop lineup. Apple just gave its basic-level MacBooks an incremental update, but the company didn't upgrade them with Intel's (Nasdaq: INTC) new Santa Rosa processors. That leaves plenty of room for a processor upgrade in the MacBook Pro line, and a high likelihood that Apple's high-end laptops will sport better LED-backlit LCD screens.
In addition, the iMac was last updated in the fall, putting it due for a refresh. It's possible that a new iMac could show up at WWDC, said Munster, but that's a much harder call to make.
Other rumors have suggested that new iMacs could sport cosmetic redesigns, perhaps adding a black edition like that offered in the MacBook line, or changing the form factor to show more screen and less case.
How About a 'MacBook Thin'?
"There have been rumors based almost entirely on product line mix, and the sense of where the industry is going," Munster said.
"Obviously there's a niche for a tablet-based laptop, ultra-thin, and whether it's for watching movies, surfing the Internet, blogging, things like that -- I don't necessarily think it's going to be at the Developers Conference, but we do think there's a 70 percent chance it will be out this year, and a 90 percent chance that it could be out by MacWorld '08," he noted.
Apple Home Server?
Apple is also facing other sets of opportunities, said Rob Enderle, principal analyst for the Enderle Group.
"Given that Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) has made a big push with this home server concept, and given that they (Apple) are on Unix, it wouldn't be a surprise for me to see them start floating the idea of an Apple server in the home as well," Enderle told MacNewsWorld. "It's a natural adjunct since they're on Unix anyway, which is a server platform -- it would be unusual to see Apple miss that opportunity."
Next-Gen iPod
A new iPod is a lock for September, Munster noted. "Apple recently talked with investors about continuing an aggressive innovation road map with the iPod," he said. "They obviously want to be in front of the holiday buying spree."
Apple will enhance the search feature on the iPod will be enhanced, Munster said, as well as offer a widescreen video iPod, but the delivery dates are all up in the air. Some rumors suggest an iPod with an iPhone form factor.
"People think the iPod has done everything it can do, that it can't be innovated anymore, that it's just a thin music player, but there's a substantial amount of innovation that can still happen on the screen size and wireless capabilities," he explained. At some point, Apple will certainly release a wireless iPod, he said.
Is Apple Trustworthy?
Even the most die-hard, Apple-loving, Mac-using, iPod-toting enthusiast knows that Apple is all about hints.
"Apple is a company you never trust 100 percent because they are not one of the most forthcoming firms in the world," Enderle noted. "Remember, they said they were absolutely not going to do Intel up until the day they said they were going to do it."
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